Been a Long Time

It's been since June since my last blog. A wise man once taught me, "when you have nothing to say, say nothing." Now that the start of school is on the horizon, I thought it was time to resume.

So, what are some of the issues. The economy is clearly the most pressing. Another wise man once said, "if it wasn't for bad luck I would have no luck at all." Seems like that sometimes describes my life. My wife and I decided to put our house up for sale. In June it seems like the right thing to do. Who would have known that we were entering the worse housing sale crisis in decades. Our house has been on sale for two months, and only three people have looked at it. Part of that is the summer slowdown. We will probably keep it on the market through September, and if nothing happens, take it off. But at least I have a job (two in fact, along with my wife).

I enjoy reading Paul Krugman's editorials in the New York Times. Even though I don't understand a lot of what he says, since I have no real background in economy and finance, he seems to make a great deal of sense. His editorial today stated that we are not in a recovery, and unless the Fed and the administration acts, things are only going to get worse. What impact will that have on my job. Our enrollment is smaller this year, and if the economy continues to stagnate, what will that do to the future of the school. With investment income declining, will major donors like Mr. Barrack continue to invest in the school so that financial aid will be available? Without it, can the school survive if only the rich can afford to send their children?

Now, on to something more optimistic. When Jimmy Carter brought Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat to Camp David, and Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty, his approval rating skyrocketed. Unfortunately, his debacle in Iran killed that. Does Obama have the tenacity to finally forge an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians? Martin Indyk, the ambassador to Israel during the Clinton administration, wrote in today's Times that there are four reasons for optimism. One, violence is down considerably; two, Israeli settlement activity has slowed almost to a halt; three, the majority of Israelis and Palestinians support a two state solution; and four, most of the details of a settlement have been worked out over the past 17 years since Oslo. Even though Hamas could attempt to derail the talks, Indyk feels that a popular referendum in Gaza on a two state solution would pass, and Hamas would have to accept it, or lose power.

No one thought Menachem Begin, an Irgunist, would be the one to make peace with Egypt. Can Netanyahu, put aside his and his party's idealism, join with the middle and left, and finally make the necessary concessions? Does the good of both peoples outweigh political ideology? I think this is where Obama must come in. Unfortunately, he is is walking on a very small tightrope. With November elections coming soon, and the prospect of a Republican takeover, Obama cannot afford to antagonize Jewish voters, many who have already left the Democratic party because of Obama's perceived stance on Israel and the Arab/Muslim world. He can't afford to step over the line, or fall of the rope to continue my analogy, by pressuring Israel to make more concessions than Netanyahu is willing to make. On the other hand, an Obama engineered peace treaty, or even progress in the first month of negotiations, could keep the Democrats in power, enhance his standing, and allow him to push through much needed economic policies, especially tax reform.

Last, but not least, Iran. Will they try to play the role of spoiler? Unleashing Hamas and Hezbollah could bring about an Israeli reaction that would be devastating. Would Abbas be able to continue to negotiate with Israel while Gaza and Lebanon are being reduced to rubble? Would Hamas and Hezbollah allow themselves to be puppets of Iran and be willing to let thousands of people die for their political objectives? From our western sensibilities, it is horrific. But if you see all these people as martyrs who will rewarded for their deaths, allowing them to die is not a problem. The Jewish perspective says "choose life".

And so our seesaw continues.